The suburbs that delivered the best and worst property market performance over the past year are an eclectic mix, but experts have still ventured to make their predictions for the locations and property types tipped to excel in 2024.
An erratic Brisbane property market has over the past year delivered some wildly different capital growth – and capital decline – outcomes across the city.
The differing performance for the various real estate markets was not limited to location either, with units taking fewer big hits than houses and pricier house markets outperforming more affordable areas.
The overall capital growth of Brisbane units in the past 12 months was 7.5 per cent, compared to houses’ delivery of just 4.7 per cent. But houses are coming off some epic growth over the past five years of 49 per cent, while units are now playing catch-up having delivered a tepid 19 per cent growth across the city over five years.
Brisbane’s median house price is now right on $1 million dollars, almost double that of units at $505,000.
This seeming unpredictability was acknowledged by Keaton Luck, Lead Agent, Calibre Real Estate, who said the past year has seen significant uncertainty in the housing market as a whole.
“Inner city Brisbane have not been immune to this lack of clarity.
“While data suggests we have seen a significant downturn in some areas close to the Brisbane CBD, the reality is many properties transacted, particularly in the second half of 2022 (following the first interest rate rise) and the first quarter of 2023 have been flood-impacted properties that have undergone repairs and were ready to be sold.
“In addition, homeowners in these areas are generally quite attentive to things like interest rates and the overall market conditions.
“Following the first interest rate rise in July 2022 and the relentless media onslaught that real estate prices were to see a 10 to 20 per cent fall over the next 18 months has seen a good number of home owners, generally those who own high value or more desirable properties, put the brakes on when it comes to selling their current home or buying,” Mr Luck said.
The total number of properties listed for sale is close to 40 per cent below the prior decade average in Brisbane, throwing a challenge at buyers trying to secure a quality property in this environment.
Mr Luck’s colleague, Sales Director Justin Hagen, told API Magazine it is a tricky time to purchase property given the shortage of stock across the board.
“Buyers who are mentally prepared to purchase and have their finances in order are in a good position to secure a property in the current market, because it seems there is still hesitation on offering on properties from the buyer market as a whole.
“This is starting to wane as interest rates are settling down and more activity is happening in the market as spring comes around.”
Where are the 2024 hotspots?
While interstate demand had come off the almost unsustainable highs of the Covid era, there was still enough demand, combined with population growth, to ensure Brisbane property demand remained elevated.
But picking which areas might deliver the greatest capital growth into and beyond 2024 is always a challenge.
Mr Hagen identified inner city units and townhouses as having significant upside potential.
“In the inner city Brisbane market we have seen good activity and interest in properties in the sub-$1 million price range, and this goes for units and townhouses.
“If you compare proximity to the CBD and the type and size of property that you can secure in Brisbane for less than $1 million compared to markets like Sydney and Melbourne, the value for money is quite astonishing.
“It is still possible to secure houses within five kilometres of the Brisbane CBD for less than that as compared to a market down south, where for that price point you’d be lucky to find something within 15 to 20 kilometres to the CBD.”
Speaking to API Magazine, Real Estate Institute of Queensland CEO, Antonia Mercorella, said post-Covid had been a “phenomenal” period of exponential growth in demand for Queensland property.
“In some Brisbane suburbs this accelerated momentum has slowed to a more sustainable pace over the past year, due to the impact of rising interest rates, cost of living and inflation, however, it’s always important to put this into context and recognise the extraordinary market and price growth that preceded it – we’re still coming off incredible highs, and this change of pace certainly doesn’t bring us back to pre-pandemic levels.”
“We still have strong demand and quite limited supply, so when you have those two factors, inevitably the market will hold firm and continue to move in a northerly direction.”
Are Brisbane property prices rising or falling?
Brisbane house prices have risen by 49 per cent in the past five years and 4.7 per cent in the past year, while units have only gone up 19 per cent in five years but a more robust 7.5 per cent in the past 12 months.
Which Brisbane suburbs are the strongest property markets?
Gumdale, Ellen Grove and New Farm have delivered the highest capital growth in Brisbane in the past 12 months for houses, while for units Tennyson, Grange and Bracken Ridge sat atop API Magazine’s top ten lists.
>>Read full article at Australian Property Investor